Washington’s control over ~90% of global oil exports is a non-lethal weapon of mass destruction. National security fears in China over importing US controlled oil, not love of the environment, is behind Beijing’s fast drive to electrify its transport fleet. Putin’s war on Ukraine in February 2022, not love of the environment, is behind Europe’s drive to electrify its transport fleet. The burning of coal and natural gas in power stations will be eliminated, thanks to the less costly solar and wind electricity generation.

Despite Donald Trump’s denialism of climate change, national security fears of oil importing countries and free market economics will ensure that green energy will power the second Industrial Revolution.

Introduction

Politicians, investors, lenders, and executives in oil, gas, coal, car-making, fossil fuel power plants, and oil exporting countries, have been using all the tactics previously mastered by the tobacco industry to discredit climate science and the 97% of actively-publishing climate scientists who attribute greenhouse gas emissions and global heating to human activity. [[1]] Climate change deniers brush aside as normal variations in weather pattern mounting evidence of global heating from more intense heat waves to melting glaciers, droughts, longer wildfire seasons, and bigger, stronger hurricanes. There are those who accept that global heating is real but deny human responsibility. There are those who even claim that global heating is beneficial because it will make parts of the earth more habitable, oblivious to the fact that much more parts would become uninhabitable, with serious destabilization of the insurance, mortgage, and municipal bond markets. The annual losses due to, for example, heat-induced labour productivity alone may reach over two trillion dollars. [[2]]  

I will outline Washington’s leadership in environmental protection laws, until Donald Trump arrived at the Oval Office in 2016. I will address Saudi Arabia’s obstruction to limit the use of fossil fuels. I will explain that the presence of ~40,000 US troops in naval and air force basis in Gulf Cooperation Council states (GCC) is to enable the US turn much of world’s oil exports into a non-lethal weapon of mass destruction. I will argue that national security concerns in oil importing countries, not love of the environment, is behind the growth of EV fleets and that cost saving green technologies are behind the shift away from burning coal and natural gas in new power plants. I will end by assessing the political and economic consequences from abandoning the internal combustion engine on Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter and most populace GCC member.

America’s Leading Role in Environmental Protection Legislation Between 1955 and 2016

The first US federal legislation involving air pollution was almost seven decades ago: The Air Pollution Control Act of 1955. “It provided funds for federal research in air pollution.” It was followed by The Clean Air Act of 1963, the first federal legislation regarding air pollution control. “It established a federal program within the US Public Health Service and authorized research into techniques for monitoring and controlling air pollution.” [[3]]

Alarm bells were sounded in 1965, when President Lyndon Johnson released for publication a 317-page report of the Environmental Pollution Panel of the President’s Science Advisory Committee titled: “Restoring the Quality of Our Environment.” [[4]] The Report warned that “large-scale fossil fuel burning is increasing CO2 in the atmosphere well beyond normal levels. The result will likely be major changes to the earth’s climate.” [[5]]

In 1967, the Air Quality Act initiated enforcement proceedings “in areas subject to interstate air pollution transport.” On December 2, 1970, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was created. At approximately the same time, the enactment of the Clean Air Act of 1970 authorized “the development of comprehensive federal and state regulations to limit emissions from both stationary (industrial) sources and mobile sources.” The 1970 Act was amended in 1977 and 1990. [[6]]

Perpetrating Environmental Vandalism

In 1968, scientists with the Stanford Research Institute warned the American Petroleum Institute of potentially serious climate risks arising from increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere. [[7]] ExxonMobil, the world’s biggest oil company, knew of climate change long before it became a public issue. Beginning in 1978, according to internal documents, [[8]] ExxonMobil “conducted cutting-edge climate research and then pivoted to work at the forefront of climate denial, manufacturing doubt about the scientific consensus that its own scientists had confirmed.” [[9]] The company spent millions of dollars to promote climate denial. [[10]] In Europe, topping the list of firms obstructing climate action is British Petroleum, [[11]] notwithstanding the green logo it designed in 2000 to propagate a positive environmental image of itself. [[12]] BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, and Total spend US$200 million a year lobbying to delay, control or block policies to address environmental damage. [[13]] They have been lobbying politicians to delay, water down, and even repeal sensible environmental laws, while propagating an image of themselves as being green and committed to renewable energy.

On a governmental level, Saudi Arabia has been obstructing the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since its establishment in 1988, as well as United Nations climate talks, and the Paris Agreement of 2015. In the US, the climate-change-denier-in-chief, Donald Trump, reversed in the first 100 days after sitting in the Oval Office on January 20, 2016, 23 sensible environmental rules. In 2017, he announced US withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.

Gaslighting the public and lobbying against laws to clean the environment increased global demand for oil from 10 million bbl./day in 1950 [[14]] to ~96 million bbl./Day in 2023, [[15]] of which ~42 million bbl./day were exports. [[16]]

The transport sector accounts for the lion’s share of global oil consumption. In 2022, the International Energy Agency (iea) estimated that the transport sector consumed 63.4% of global demand for oil products (Table 1). [[17]]

Table 1

Oil products final consumption by sector, World, 2022

Sector	%
Transport	63.4
Non-energy use	17.7
Industry	8.2
Residential	5.3
Agriculture/forestry	2.8
Commercial and public services	1.8
Fishing	0.2
Non-specified	0.7

In 2019, the iea estimated that crude oil consumption by the transportation sector was a total of 65.3%, divided among road transport (49.2%), aviation (8.6%), navigation (6.7%), and rail (0.8%). [[18]].

     

Graph 1

Crude oil consumption (2019)

Environmentalists’ struggle over the past four decades suddenly benefited from an unexpected quarter—Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Ukrainian blood suddenly awakened European politicians, Germany in particular, to the national security risks of relying on Russia’s oil and gas. The war spurred Europe to protect its national security by investing in sustainable energy, with a ban from 2035 on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars. In the US, President Biden’s $370 billion in clean energy investment could bring the end of the internal combustion engine closer. However, judging from Donald Trump’s first term in office, he is expected to resume his climate denial politics.

Crude Oil as a Non-Lethal Weapon of Mass Destruction

Oil hegemony in a world addicted to crude oil means world hegemony. US control over Saudi Arabia’s oil fields, the world’s largest and cheapest to produce, and those of the five other GCC members, serve two purposes. The first is to avert serious disruptions of oil shipments to US allies, like Japan, which could cripple global supply-chains. The second purpose is to turn this control into a non-lethal weapon of mass destruction in the event of war against US rivals, particularly, China. 

The threat of the oil weapon on the national security of oil importing countries may be seen from Washington’s own assessments of the dangers to Germany and Western Europe from importing Russian oil and gas. A 24-page report in 1981 prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency for former President Ronald Reagan titled “USSR-Western Europe: Implications of the Siberia-to-Europe Gas Pipeline” [[19]] advised of the serious political and military risks involved in the construction of a giant gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Describing the document, The New York Times: “The language in the C.I.A. memo was unequivocal: The 3,500-mile gas pipeline from Siberia to Germany is a direct threat to the future of Western Europe, it said, creating ‘serious repercussions’ from a dangerous reliance on Russian fuel.” [[20]] Former President Donald Trump, stressed during a visit to NATO Headquarters in Brussels on July 11, 2018, that a gas pipeline, supposedly the undersea Nord Stream 2 pipeline, from Russia to Germany has made Germany “totally controlled” by and “captive to Russia.” [[21]] 

Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil and US’ Oil Hegemony

The abundance of Saudi and GCC oil fields is critical to control global oil exports and pricing. They contain around a third of the world’s reserves, a quarter of annual oil production [[22]], and ~35% of global oil exports. They are among the least costly to extract and relatively easy for US forces to protect. They are located on a rather small geographic area of some 800 miles along the Eastern Coast of the Arabian Peninsula. The size of the native population in the oil-rich areas is small, ruled by Sunni absolute emirs, kings, and sultans, troubled by a powerful hostile Shi’ite Iran and eager for US protection.

To prevent democratic wind from blowing in the direction of the GCC, the US supports the dictatorships in the Levant and Egypt as well. Like their royal counterparts, the presidents, too, are non-representative, non-participatory, and non-transparent rulers.

Saudi Arabia’s Need for US Protection

Saudi Arabia is oil rich country but very weak. Surrounded by enemies from all sides, it needs US protection in return for obsequiousness, at least on oil production volumes and pricing politics. American weapons and technicians keep the hundreds of billions of dollars in advanced systems sold to the Saudi Ministry of Defence and Aviation and the National Guard over the past half century in good operational order. According to the Saudi Central Bank, between 1981 and 2017, Saudi defence and national security received the highest allocation of annual budgets: $1.1 trillion out of $3.36 trillion in total revenues from crude oil exports. [[25]] Spending on weapons may be guesstimated at of 50% or ~500 billion. The Obama administration sold Riyadh in a single deal in 2012, $112 billion in weapons over eight years. It also had another $110 billion package under negotiation. [[26]]

Did all the weapons provide Saudi Arabia with adequate security? Not according to Donald Trump. He told a rally in Wisconsin on April 29, 2019, “We are losing our ass defending you, Saudi Arabia.” [[27]] At a rally in Southaven, Mississippi on October 2, 2018, Trump disclosed that he told King Salman: “King — we’re protecting you — you might not be there for two weeks without us.” [[28]] Even South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham had a few words of his own. He announced in December 2018 that the Saudi army “can’t fight out of a paper bag” and “if it weren’t for the United States, they’d be speaking Farsi in about a week.” It may be said that Saudi weapon purchases are protection money. [[29]]

Saudi officials and princes cultivate lucrative good connections with former senior Washington officials, captains of industry, media moguls, and lobbyists. They act as advisers, consultants, business partners, investors, lawyers, banker, etc. for hefty fees. For example, six months after leaving the White House, Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law, secured a $2 billion investment from the Saudi Public Investment Fund. [[30]]

Washington forgave the al-Sauds after two major events during the past fifty years. The first was in October 1973, when Riyadh led the oil boycott by the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) of countries that supported Israel during the Arab Israeli War. [[31]] The second event was September 11, 2001, when fifteen of the nineteen Wahhabi terrorists who flew passenger airplanes into buildings in New York City and Washington D.C. were Saudis. In retaliation, G.W. Bush demolished Iraq in 2003, not the hotbed of Wahhabism. [[32]] Why? perhaps because Iraq’s modest oil exports at that time were less disruptive to global oil flows than Saudi Arabia’s. Or perhaps, Bush and Vice President Cheney were salivating over Iraq’s enormous untapped oil reserves in the South. [[33]] Or Iraq might have served as a launching pad to overthrow the Tehran Ayatollahs, then impose a regional pax-Americana, and break-up OPEC. In the event, however, none of that materialized. Instead, by crippling Iraq, G. W. Bush, wittingly or unwittingly, empowered Iran, creating a huge problem for the al-Sauds. Qom, the spiritual capital of the Supreme Ayatollah, took over the Baghdad government and the predominantly Shi’ite Southern Iraq with its holiest of holy shrines in Najaf (Ali’s mausoleum) and Karbala (Hussein bin Ali’s mausoleum). Iran frightens Wahhabi Saudi Arabia with its powerful military industrial infrastructure, diversified economy, large population, and control over the Shi’ite Crescent (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen). To secure the realm, the al-Sauds have little choice but to become even more obsequious to Washington than ever.

Guarding the Oilfields, Shipping Lanes, and Royal Palaces

The United States stations around 40,000 troops around the Gulf region. They ensure the un-interrupted flow of some 18 million bbl./day (including oil exports from Iran and Iraq), through the chokepoint of Strait of Hormuz. They protect the oil fields and GCC rulers.

Bahrain is home to the US Fifth Fleet, hosting approximately 7,000 personnel. Its Khalifa bin Salman deep-water port can accommodate aircraft carriers. Out of Sheikh Isa Air Base, the US Air Force operates fighter and surveillance aircrafts. [[34]] In Kuwait, approximately 13,500 US forces are mainly at Camp Arifjan and Ali al-Salem Air Base. Only Germany, Japan, and South Korea host more US forces than Kuwait does. Since 2004, Kuwait has been designated as a Major Non-NATO ally. [[35]] In Saudi Arabia, until 2003, the US maintained a large air force presence at the Prince Sultan air base outside Riyadh. In a cosmetic move, it relocated to the nearby al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The move was intended to “purify” the land of the two holy mosques of Mecca and Medina from the military presence of “infidels” to calm bin Laden’s followers. Currently, US troops in Saudi Arabia number around 2,700. [[36]] In Qatar, Al-Udeid Air Base is a few minutes flying time from Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province where all Saudi oil fields are located. With around 10,000 US troops and 120 aircrafts, al-Udeid is the largest US base in the Middle East. [[37]] It is indispensable to supporting US military operations throughout the region, and according to the State Department, Qatar has contributed since 2003, more than $8 billion in developing al-Udeid. [[38]] The UAE hosts the Gulf Air Warfare Centre at Al Dhafra Air Base, where approximately 3,500 US personnel are based. UAE ports also provide critical logistical support for the US Navy. [[39]]  

Donald Trump’s Assault on Environmental Regulations

We have seen in the Introduction that the United States government led the way in environmental protection legislation: The Air Pollution Control Act of 1955; Clean Air Act of 1963; Air Quality Act of 1967; Clean Air Act of 1970 and its amendment in 1977 and 1990. And, to implement the various requirements included in these Acts, the National Environmental Policy Act established the Environmental Protection Agency in 1970.

Mr. Trump, nonetheless, asserted on Twitter on November 6, 2012, four years before he entered the White House that: “The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.” [[40]]

In his first 100 days in office, Mr. Trump reversed 23 environmental rules. [[41]] By revoking the rule that prevents coal mining companies from dumping debris into local streams (February 16, 2017) and ending the ban on a potentially harmful insecticide (March 29, 2017), he improved corporate profits, and the stock values of the companies involved, while the burden of cleaning the polluted rivers and reclaiming the contaminated soil is shifted to future generations. 

In the middle of 2017, the US Interior Secretary directed the Bureau of Land Management to ramp up sales of oil and gas leases on federal land to increase oil production on federal lands. [[42]] “Trump Digs Coal” placards became a common sight in Trump’s rallies in America’s coal states. On a visit to West Virginia on August 21, 2018, Mr. Trump declared: “We love clean beautiful, West Virginia coal … That’s indestructible stuff … In times of war, in times of conflict, you can blow up those windmills, … You can blow up those pipelines … You can do a lot of things to those solar panels … But you know what you can’t hurt? Coal.” [[43]] Speaking at a National Republican Congressional Committee dinner on April 2, 2019, Trump went as far as declaring that “wind farms cause cancer” [[44]] and in an interview on October 15, 2018, with CBS’s program 60 Minutes, he accused climate change scientists of having a “political agenda.” [[45]] He doubted whether humans were responsible for earth’s rising temperatures, adding those temperatures “could very well go back.” [[46]] 

On August 4, 2017, Trump Administration notified its intent to withdraw from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement [[47]] and the US became the only country in the world outside the landmark Paris Agreement. [[48]] At the UN Climate Change Conference in Katowice, Poland in December 2018, the United States joined Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Russia in objecting to the report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on the impacts of a temperature rise of 1.5 centigrade. [[49]]

On the first day of his second term in the Oval Office, January 20, 2025, Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement for the second time and declared a national energy emergency to boost oil drilling, speed up pipeline construction. [[50]]

What Might Be Lurking Behind Trump’s Denial of Climate Change?

It might be his strategy to:

– Prolong the life of America’s oil weapon.

– Prolong the life of the US Dollar as the major reserve currency for world’s central banks.

– Prolong the life of America’s smoke-stack industries.

TRANSITION TO GREEN ENERGY

British Petroleum estimated in 2014 that “the Earth has enough oil left for about 53 more years at current production levels,” but “significantly more than 53 years of oil remaining if drilling technologies can improve to the point that recovering the more difficult to reach oil becomes economically feasible.” [[51]] The EV, however, changed the arithmetic. It made future availability of oil a function of demand, rather than supply or reserves. Green technologies will determine how much of the earth’s fossil fuel reserves will be left in the ground forever.

The green revolution will progress over two Stages. The first would replace the internal combustion engine by the electric vehicle by 2040/2050. The second would end the demand for natural gas and coal by 2080/2090.

The First Stage

China and Europe, importers of more than 50% of global oil exports, have been spearheading the electrification of their transport fleets. National security fears, not love of the environment, have been behind the drive towards the EV. It may be predicted that ~50% to ~65% of the current ~42 million bbl./day in global oil exports would disappear in two decades or so, leaving between ~15 and ~21 million bbl./day for non-transportation uses, like industrial; pesticides; fertilizers; plastics; chemicals, etc. Clamouring for revenues out of a small pie, the market price for oil would collapse. Countries with the lowest production costs will try to drive higher cost producers out of the market. Oil exporters with the bigger military powers are expected to prevail.

Table 2 shows the overall costs in eight countries to produce a barrel of oil or gas equivalent (production + administrative/ transportation + capital spending + gross taxes). [[52]]  

Table 2

Cost to produce a barrel of oil or gas equivalent ($/bbl. – 2016)

Iran	Saudi Arabia	Iraq	Russia	Indonesia	US (non-shale)	Nigeria	UK
9.1	10.00	10.6	19.2	19.7	21.00	29.00	44.3

Source: knoema

The impact of a post-oil age would be severe on Saudi Arabia. The IMF in 2022: “oil revenues averaged 75% of total budget revenues since 2010, with large variations, peaking at 93% in 2011 and falling to 53% in 2020 as the COVID-19 crises pushed global oil demand down.” [[53]] Saudi Arabia suffers from a poorly diversified economy, big population growth, and a sizable expatriate community that provides 75% of the workforce. These challenges explain Saudi Arabia’s alarm at efforts to put an end to the internal combustion engine. Riyadh’s latest act

The EV to the Rescue

At the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, UK in late 2021, more than 100 stakeholders including governments, automakers, investors, financial institutions and fleet owners and operators committed to accelerate the transition to 100% zero-emission cars and vans globally by 2040, and by no later than 2035 in leading markets. [[55]]

In its “Global EV Outlook 2024”, the iea, said that global EV sales in the first quarter of 2024 grew by ~25% compared with the first quarter of 2023 and that global EV sales in 2024 could reach ~17 million, accounting for more than one in five cars sold. [[56]] Compared with 2018, when global EV sales were 2% of car sales, the growth has been phenomenal. [[57]]

Since China and Europe are the world’s two biggest oil importers, their transition from the internal combustion engine to the EV will be address next.  

China’s Quest for Independence from Crude Oil Imports

China imported crude oil for the first time in 1993—93,000 bbl./day (Table 3). [[58]]

Table 3 

China’s crude oil consumption and production (1993 – 2016) – 1,000s bbl./day

	1993	1995	2000	2005	2010	2014	2016
Consumption	2,993	3,394	4,689	6,970	9,339	11,637	12,792
Production	2,903	3,060	3,389	3,871	4,575	5,045	4,905
Imports	90	334	1,300	3,099	4,764	6,592	7,887

Source: Worldometer

Until 1993, China’s domestic oil production was sufficient to meet its industrial needs and small transportation fleet. By 2016, the trickle became a flood—almost 8 million bbl./day. During the first 10 months of 2024, China’s oil imports stood at 10.76 million bbl./day. [[59]] Much of the increase since 1993 was associated with the growth of China’s fleet of motor vehicles—5.5 million civilian owned cars and trucks in 1990, [[60]] to 329 million in December 2023. [[61]]

As oil imports reached around 5 million bbl./day in 2009, electrification of China’s transportation sector started in earnest, subsidizing EV buyers and building EV charging infrastructure networks on an industrial scale. [[62]]  

Today, China is by far the world leader in EV production and sales. Of global EV sales in 2023, China’s share was 60%. [[63]] New electric car registrations in 2023 reached 8.1 million, 35% higher than 2022, in addition to exporting 1.2 million EVs. In 2024, sales of EVs in China is estimated to reach ~45%. [[64]] The iea estimates that by 2030, almost one in three cars on the roads in China would be electric. [[65]] By 2035, the sale of new petrol cars will be banned. [[66]]

China’s crude oil consumption in 2023 was 16.58 million bbl./day (MBD), of which 4.18 MBD were produced domestically, leaving 12.4 MBD to be imported. [[67]] Assuming that China’s oil consumption follows the IEA pattern in Graph 1 (road transport 49.2%, aviation 8.6%, navigation 6.7%, rail 0.8%), and all internal combustion engines are replaced, China would save ~8.16 MBD on road transport [[68]] and ~2.67 MBD on aviation, navigation, and rail [[69]] for a total saving of ~10.86 MBD, or ~88% of China’s oil imports in 2023. It may be concluded that most of China’s oil imports are used to fuel the country’s transport sector, and its domestic oil production is used to meet its non-transport needs. Said differently, for China to free itself from the lion share of its crude oil imports, it must abandon the internal combustion engine.  

Beyond Europe and China

The International Energy Agency (iea) estimates that 60% of new worldwide car sales will be electric by 2030, [[76]] and that peak oil demand is in sight by 2030. [[77]] It may be extrapolated that by 2040, most new cars sold globally will be electric. Also, when legacy petrol and diesel cars and other equipment reach the end of their useful life, between 2040/2050, global exports of crude oil could drop to around 15MBD, in today’s volume terms (42 MBD x 0.35%). The reduced volume would make chemicals and plastics in countries with insufficient domestic oil resources, like China (~4.5 MBD), and non-oil producing industrialized countries, like Japan and South Korea. As for the countries with sufficient oil production of their own, like Brazil; Canada; Russia; the US… they will make plastics and chemicals using their own domestic oil.

The Economic and Political Consequences of a Collapse in Crude Oil Exports

– The market price for oil will crash.

– OPEC will be disbanded.

– Oil exporters with the lowest cost of production will undercut each other.

 – Russia will lose a major source of Dollar revenues. 30%-50% of its federal budget between 2014 and 2024 were from oil and Gas and about an average of 20% of GDP. [[78]]

 – GCC budgets, ~75% dependant of oil revenues, will suffer irreparably. Foreign workers will return home. The oil century will give way to a desertification century. 

– Washington will lose the oil weapon.

– US troops will leave the GCC.

– The US Dollar as reserve currency will be tarnished.

– Greenhouse gas emissions will be cut by 15% and CO2 by one fifth.

The Second Stage

Like the First Stage, the Second is not concerned with cleaning the environment or protecting peoples’ health. It is driven by saving money on the less costly green energy. The Second Stage will need longer time to materialize than the First because power plants are depreciated over around fifty years. The US Energy Information Administration estimated in 2019 that renewables must wait until 2050 to provide nearly half of world electricity (Graph 2). [[79]] 

Graph 2

Projection of renewables’ share of electricity generation by 2050

In 2023, fossil fuels provided 60.65% of the energy needed globally for electricity, with the rest from renewables as Table 4 shows: [[80]]

Table 4

Electricity generation mix (% – 2023)

Oil	Gas	Coal	Solar	Wind	Nuclear	Hydro	Bioenergy	Other
2.67	22.47	35.51	5.53	7.82	9.11	14.28	2.30	0.30

Source: Our World in Data

Graph 3 shows global electricity generation mix between 1985 and 2023. The share of solar and wind increased from zero in 1985 to 13.35% in 2023. [[81]]

Graph 3

Global electricity generation by source between 1985 and 2023

Source: Our World in data

According to the iea, there are around 9,000 coal‐fired power plants, around three‐quarters is in emerging market and developing economies. Complicating coaltransitions is the relatively young age coal plants across much of the Asia Pacific region—less than 15 years old, compared with more than 40 years in North America. [[82]] Further, ~350 coal-fired power stations are still under construction in 20 countries (in 2022). [[83]] Adding to the complication is decommissioning fossil fuels using steel and cement factories.  

Science is leading the transition to the Second Industrial Revolution. In 2010, the cost of a megawatt hour of electricity from solar was an average of $378. By 2019, it dropped to $68—less than nuclear and coal. [[84]]. Graph 4 shows the falling cost of renewable energy between 2010 and 2019.

Graph 4

Falling cost of renewable energy between 2010 and 2019

The momentum towards solar and wind power plants have accelerated during the past two decades. In 2000, solar and wind contributed 0.22% to world electricity. By 2023, this became 13.35%. In 2023, investment in solar PV surpassed for the first time all other generation technologies combined—$480 billion vs. $413 billion. [[85]]

The iea said that the world added 50% more renewable capacity in 2023 than in 2022, and that the next 5 years will see fastest growth yet. [[86]] China commissioned as much solar PV in 2023 as the entire world did in 2022. [[87]]  By the end of this decade, the share of wind and solar PV alone in global electricity generation is set to double to 30%. [[88]]

As for natural gas, calls by producing countries and companies, lobbyists and propagandists to burn natural gas in new power plants, because natural gas emits less greenhouse gases than coal or crude oil is disingenuous. Solar and wind generated electricity emit zero greenhouse gases and cost less to build and operate than natural gas.  

Significantly, MIT engineers have developed in December 2022 ultralight fabric solar cells, thinner than a human hair, one-hundredth the weight of conventional solar panels that can easily turn any surface into a power source. The new discovery generates 18 times more power-per-kilogram. The solar cells can be integrated onto, among others, the sails of a boat, adhered onto tents and tarps in disaster recovery operations, or applied onto the wings of drones. [[89]]

A POST-OIL MIDDLE EAST

The Political Scene

Washington would abandon an Arabian Peninsula without crude oil exports. Without US protection, Saudi and the other GCC rulers will face a more powerful and hostile Iran on their own. In a post oil Middle East, there could be four ethnic and sectarian powers vying for regional control: Sunni Turkey; a block of Sunni Arab states; a block of Shi’ites in Iran and certain Arab communities; and Jewish Israel. There can be as many scenarios of the shifting political alliances among these blocks as the mind can conjure.

Sunni Arabs and Shi’ite Iran will be in a state of tension. Sunni Turkey is likely to join Arab states against Iran. Hostilities may be fought along ethnic lines, as well. Arabs and Persians fought bitterly over the long sweep of history, before and after Islam. Turks and Persians, too, fought each other when both were Sunnis, as well as after Persia was converted to Shi’ism by Shah Ismail (1501-1524).

The political map of the region will most likely change. Iran’s occupation since November 30, 1971 (on orders of the Shah) of the three strategically important UAE islands at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz—Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb foreshadows the shape of things to come. The UAE never accepted Iran’s occupation of these islands and continues to demand their return.

In Bahrain, while most of the population are Shi’ites, the ruling al-Khalifa family is Sunni. For decades, Iran has been calling for the return of Bahrain to Tehran. In 2016, a revolutionary Guard commander close to Iran’s Supreme Leader demanded that Iran annexes Bahrain. [[90]] Except for eighty years under Portuguese rule seven centuries ago, Bahrain had been a Persian territory. In 1782, the al-Khalifa clan removed the Persian ruler of the island.

Other tensions will continue to fester. In Iran, the Arab population of the oil rich Khuzestan province want independence from Tehran. Iraq regards Kuwait a part of its territory and Saddam Husein invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1991, describing it as Iraq’s 19^th province, triggering the first Gulf War.  The Kurds in Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey dream of their own state. and many border disputes engulf GCC member states—Bahrain/Qatar; Kuwait/Saudi Arabia; Oman/Saudi Arabia/UAE; Qatar/Saudi Arabia; and within the UAE; Dubai/Sharjah. 

The Economic Scene

The transformation from economies dependent on oil revenues to non-oil-based economies would deprive the governments of five of the six GCC states of more than 75% of their Dollar revenues. Dubai’s greater metropolitan area, which includes Sharjah, is a tourist and service economy, with ~45% of UAE population, will suffer ~39% drop. Graph 5 shows the contribution of hydrocarbon revenues to government revenues in the six GCC states. [[91]]

Graph 5

Contribution of hydrocarbon revenues to government revenues (2012 and 2018)

The immediate effect will be felt in labour markets. Most of the expatriate workers who built and maintain the glitzy skyscrapers, ice skating rinks, and golf courses would return home. While expatriate workers in Saudi Arabia are a third of the population, they provide around three quarters of the labour force. In the rest of the GCC, expatriate workers are around three quarters of the population and provide ~90% of the labour force. They will leave behind ghost-towns with excess capacity airports, desalination plants, roads, schools, hospitals, and public utilities. Without sufficient skilled workers, the infrastructure would deteriorate quickly in the blazing sun. With millions of empty dwellings and office spaces, real estate values would crash.

Over the millennia, scant rainfall and absence of rivers in the Arabian Peninsula prevented the development of sizeable settled agricultural communities and constrained its capacity to feed ~10 million inhabitants. Today, ~60 million people, of which 25 million are foreign workers, live in the GCC alone (excluding Yemen). They are sustained through food imports and desalinated sea water. After the departure of the foreign workers, there will still be tens of millions of nationals. How would they survive? The rich could afford to move to London and Paris. The rest would likely migrate north, to the Levant, repeating what the Bedouin of Arabia have done since the beginning of time. Ultimately, the oil century will give way to the desertification century, eventually restoring the desert to its former pristine condition.

The excesses of Gulf Cooperation Council’s rulers during the oil century may be described by the fate of one man: “Ozymandias”—the title of Percy Bysshe Shelley’s poem (1792-1822) about the King of Kings, the mighty pharaoh Ramesses II, whose huge statue and all of his other works are toppled by the sands of time.

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FOOTNOTES

[1] “Do scientists agree on climate change?”, NASA Global Climate Change, https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/17/do-scientists-agree-on-climate-change/

[2] “Global labor loss due to humid heat exposure underestimated for outdoor workers”, IOP Science (January 13, 2022), https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3dae?ftag=MSF0951a18

[3] “Evolution of the Clean Air Act”, United States Environmental Protection Agency, https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/evolution-clean-air-act

[4] “Restoring the Quality of Our Environment”, Report of the Environmental Pollution Panel of the President’s Science Advisory Committee, The White House, (November 1965), https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uc1.b4315678&view=1up&seq

[5] President’s Science Advisory Committee, “Restoring the Quality of our Environment: Report of the Environmental Pollution Panel,” (November 1965), https://apeoplesepa.org/modules/president-s-science-advisory-committee-restoring-the-quality-of-our-environment-november-1965

[6] “Evolution of the Clean Air Act”, United States Environmental Protection Agency, https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/evolution-clean-air-act

[7] David Hasemyer, John Cushman, Neela Banerjee, and Lisa Song, “CO2’s Role in Global Warming Has Been on the Oil Industry’s Radar Since the 1960s, Inside Climate News, (April 13, 2016), https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13042016/climate-change-global-warming-oil-industry-radar-1960s-exxon-api-co2-fossil-fuels/

[8] Ibid.

[9] Neela Banerjee, John Cushman, David Hasemyer, and Lisa Song, “Exxon: The Road Not Taken”, Inside Climate News, https://insideclimatenews.org/book/exxon-the-road-not-taken/

[10] “Exxon Knew about Climate Change almost 40 years ago”, Scientific American, (October 26, 2015), https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-almost-40-years-ago/

[11] “BP tops the list of firms obstructing climate action in Europe”, The Guardian, (September 21, 2015), https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/21/bp-tops-the-list-of-firms-obstructing-climate-action-in-europe

[12] “BP goes green”, BBC, (July 24, 2000), http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/849475.stm

[13] “Top oil firms spending millions lobbying to block climate change policies, says report”, The Guardian, (March 22, 2019), https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/mar/22/top-oil-firms-spending-millions-lobbying-to-block-climate-change-policies-says-report

[14] Julian Geiger, “How Much Crude Oil Has The World Really Consumed?”, World-energy, (August 21, 2019), https://www.world-energy.org/article/1481.html

[15] “Statistical Review of World Energy”, 73^nd Edition, The Energy Institute, (2024), P. 4, https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/az/pdf/2024/Statistical-Review-of-World-Energy.pdf

[16] Crude oil Exports, CEIC, (2023), https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/crude-oil-exports

[17] “Oil products final consumption by sector”, World, 2022 International Energy Agency (iea), https://www.iea.org/world/oil#where-does-the-world-get-its-oil

[18] “Share of oil final consumption by sector, 2019”, International Energy Agency (iea), (October 26, 2022), https://prod.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/share-of-oil-final-consumption-by-sector-2019

[19] “USSR-Western Europe: Implications of the Siberia-to-Europe gas Pipeline”, The CIA, (March 1981), https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000500594.pdf

[20] Hiroko Tabuchi, “How Europe Got Hooked on Russian Gas Despite Reagan’s Warnings”, The New York Times, (March 23, 2022), https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/climate/europe-russia-gas-reagan.html

[21] Jonathan Lemire and Jill Colvin, “In Testy Exchange, Trump Hits Germany for Being ‘Captive’ to Russia”, RealClearPolitics, (July 11, 2018), https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/07/11/in_testy_exchange_trump_hits_germany_for_being_captive_to_russia_137488.html

[22] “The Oil Resources of the GCC States”, Middle East Monitor (MEMO), (June 23, 2014), https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20140623-the-oil-resources-of-the-gcc-states

[23] Index Mundi, Country comparison – Energy: Oil exports (bbl./day), https://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?t=50&v=95&l=en

[24] Ibid.

[25] Elhadj, Elie, Oil and God – Sustainable Energy Will Defeat Wahhabi Terror, Universal Publishers, Irvine, 2018, P. 152.

[26] Bruce Ridiel, “The $110 Billion Arms Deal to Saudi Arabia is Fake News.” Brookings, (April 5, 2017), https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/06/05/the-110-billion-arms-deal-to-saudi-arabia-is-fake-news

[27] “Trump: We are losing our a** defending you, Saudi Arabia”, Middle East Monitor, (April 29, 2019), https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20190429-trump-we-are-losing-our-a-defending-you-saudi-arabia/

[28] “Trump says he told Saudi’s King Salman that the ruler wouldn’t last without US support”, CNBC, (October 2, 2018), https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/03/trump-i-told-saudi-king-salman-he-wouldnt-last-without-us-support.html

[29] Gregg Re, “Graham: Saudis would ‘be ‘speaking Farsi in about a week’ without US support against Iran”, Fox News, (December 9, 2018), https://www.foxnews.com/politics/graham-saudi-arabia-would-be-speaking-farsi-in-about-a-week-without-us

[30] Ibid.

[31] Michael Corbett, “Oil Shock of 1973–74”, Federal Reserve History, https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/oil-shock-of-1973-74

[32] In 1805, Mohammad Bin Saud allied himself with Mohammad Bin Abdulwahhab in a rebellion against the Ottoman Sultan. They accused Istanbul of corrupting the tenets of Islam and proclaimed their struggle to restore to the land of Mecca and Medina the true Islam. Wahhabism finds its roots in Hanbalism, the most extreme among Sunni Islam’s four schools of jurisprudence, established by Ahmad bin Hanbal (d. 855). Due to its extremism, it never found much following. The al-Saud project was unsuccessful. In 1817, Mohammad Ali, Egypt’s ruler, acting on behalf of the Ottoman Sultan, Mahmoud II (July 1785-July 1839) crushed the rebellion. In 1902, a second rebellion was launched by Abdulaziz al-Saud and the Abdulwahhab clan. On the ashes of the Ottoman Empire’s defeat in World War I and with active help from London, the second rebellion succeeded in establishing in 1932, the Wahhabi Kingdom that bears the al-Saud family name.

[33] John S. Duffield, “Oil and the Iraq War: How the United States Could Have Expected to Benefit, and Might Still“, Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA), Vol. 9, No. 2 (June 2005), https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/olj/meria/meria_jun05/meria05_duj01.pdf

[34] “Assessing the Global Operating Environment, Middle East”, Heritage.org, (October 18, 2022): https://www.heritage.org/military-strength/assessing-the-global-operating-environment/middle-east

[35] “U.S. Security Cooperation with Kuwait”, US Department of State, Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, (July 22, 2021), https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-kuwait-2

[36] “Assessing the Global Operating Environment, Middle East”, Heritage.org, (October 18, 2022), https://www.heritage.org/military-strength/assessing-the-global-operating-environment/middle-east

[37] “Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar”, GlobalSecurity.Org., http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/udeid.htm 

[38] “U.S. Security Cooperation With Qatar”, US Department of State, Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, (July 30, 2021), https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-qatar

[39] “U.S. Security Cooperation with the United Arab Emirates”, US Department of State, Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, (June 25, 2021), https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-the-united-arab-emirates/

[40] Donald J. Trump, @realDonaldTrump, https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/265895292191248385?lang=en

[41] Nadja Popovich and Tatiana Schlossberg, “23 Environmental Rules Rolled Back in Trump’s First 100 Days”, The New York Times, (May 2, 2017), https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/02/climate/environmental-rules-reversed-trump-100-days.html

[42] Jim Lyons, “The Rush to Develop Oil and Gas We Don’t Need”, The New York Times, (August 28, 2017), https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/opinion/trump-oil-public-lands.html

[43] John Siciliano, “Trump uses dramatic vision of exploding windmills to tout coal’s reliability”, Washington Examiner, (August 22, 2018), https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/trump-uses-dramatic-vision-of-exploding-wind-mills-to-tout-coals-reliability

[44] Ledyard King, “Do wind farms cause cancer? Some claims Trump made about the industry are just hot air”, USA Today, (April 3, 2019), https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/04/03/cancer-causing-wind-turbines-president-donald-trump-claim-blown-away/3352175002/

[45] “Trump: Climate change scientists have ‘political agenda’”, BBC, (October 15, 2018), https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45859325

[46] Ibid.

[47] “US Notifies UN of Paris Climate Deal Pullout”, BBC, (August 5, 2017), http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40829987

[48] Fiona Harvey, “Syria Signs Paris Climate Agreement and Leaves US Isolated”, The Guardian, (November 7, 2017), https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/07/syria-signs-paris-climate-agreement-and-leaves-us-isolated

[49] Matt McGrath, “Climate change: COP24 fails to adopt key scientific report”, BBC, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46496967

[50] Timothy Gardner, Valerie Volcovici, and Jarrett Renshaw, “Trump says he will unleash American fossil fuels, halt climate cooperation”, (January 21, 2025), https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-will-declare-national-energy-emergency-incoming-administration-official-2025-01-20

[51] Ryan McQueeney, “How Much Oil Is Left,” Zacks, (December 27, 2017): https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/287141/how-much-oil-is-left-in-the-,arth

[52] “Cost of Crude Oil Production by Country and Crude Oil Prices”, knoema, (December 25, 2020), https://knoema.com/infographics/nolsgce/cost-of-crude-oil-production-by-country-and-crude-oil-prices

[53] IMF Country Report No. 22/275, Saudi Arabia, International Monetary Fund, (June 7, 2022), file:///Users/elie/Downloads/1SAUEA2022002-1.pdf

[54] Damian Carrington, “Oil-rich Saudi Arabia ‘a wrecking ball’ at Cop29”, The Guardian, (November 23, 2024), https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2024/nov/19/cop29-climate-summit-live-updates-world-leaders-in-baku-azerbaijan

[55] “COP26 declaration on accelerating the transition to 100% zero emission cars and vans”, UK Department of Transport, (Updated November 17, 2022), https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cop26-declaration-zero-emission-cars-and-vans/cop26-declaration-on-accelerating-the-transition-to-100-zero-emission-cars-and-vans

[56] “Executive Summary”, Global EV Outlook 2024, International Energy Agency (iea), https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/executive-summary

[57] “Trends in electric cars”, Global EV Outlook 2024, International Energy Agency (iea), https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/trends-in-electric-cars

[58] “History of Oil Consumption and Production”, China Oil, https://www.worldometers.info/oil/china-oil

[59] Tsvetana Paraskova, “China’s Crude Oil Imports Continue to Slump”, Oilprice.com, (November 7, 2024), https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Crude-Oil-Imports-Continue-to-Slump.html

[60] Automobiles in China: Growth, popular cars, numbers, (July 2022), https://factsanddetails.com/china/cat13/sub86/item314.html

[61] “China Number of Registered Vehicles”, CEIC, (December 1, 2023), https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/number-of-registered-vehicles

[62] Tom Swallow, “China is Leading the way in National EV Adoption”, Sustainabilitymag.com, (August 5, 2021), https://sustainabilitymag.com/renewable-energy/china-leading-way-national-ev-adoption

[63] “Executive Summary”, Global EV Outlook 2024, International Energy Agency (iea), https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/executive-summary

[64] “Trends in electric cars”, Global EV Outlook 2024, International Energy Agency (iea), https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/trends-in-electric-cars

[65] Ibid.

[66] “China joins list of nations banning the sale of old-style fossil-fuelled vehicles”, World Economic Forum, (November 11, 2020), https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/china-bans-fossil-fuel-vehicles-electric

[67] “China Oil Consumption”, CEIC Data: https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/oil-consumption

[68] (16.58 million bbl./day x 49.2% = 8.16 million bbl./day).

[69] (0.8% + 6.7% + 8.56% = 16.1%.

16.58 million bbl./day x 16.1% = 2.67 million bbl./day),

[70] “EU ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2035 explained”, European Parliament, June 30, 2023), https://www.europarl.europa.eu/topics/en/article/20221019STO44572/eu-ban-on-sale-of-new-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-2035-explained

[71] Fact Sheets on the European Union, European Parliament, Renewable energy: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/70/renewable-energy

[72] Dr. Fatih Birol and Ursula Von Der Leyen, “Europe has taken its energy destiny back into its own hands”, International Energy Agency (iea), (April 12, 2024), https://www.iea.org/commentaries/europe-has-taken-its-energy-destiny-back-into-its-own-hands?utm_campaign=IEA+newsletters&utm_medium=Email&utm_source=SendGrid

[73] “Trends in electric cars”, Global EV Outlook 2024, International Energy Agency, (iea), https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/trends-in-electric-cars

[74] “Executive Summary”, Global EV Outlook 2024, International Energy Agency, (iea), https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/executive-summary

[75] “Statistical Review of World Energy”, 73^rd Edition, The Energy Institute, (2024), PP. 21 and 25, https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/az/pdf/2024/Statistical-Review-of-World-Energy.pdf

[76] The International Energy Agency (iea), (September 2022): https://www.iea.org/reports/by-2030-evs-represent-more-than-60-of-vehicles-sold-globally-and-require-an-adequate-surge-in-chargers-installed-in-buildings

[77] Ronan Graham and Ilias Atigui, “A strong focus on oil security will be critical throughout the clean energy transition”, The International Energy Agency (iea), (March 11, 2024), https://www.iea.org/commentaries/a-strong-focus-on-oil-security-will-be-critical-throughout-the-clean-energy-transition?utm_campaign=IEA+newsletters&utm_medium=Email&utm_source=SendGrid

[78] Vitaly Yermakov, “Follow the Money: Understanding Russia’s oil and gas revenues”, The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, (March 2024), https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Follow-the-Money-Russian-Oil.pdf

[79] Michelle Bowman, “EIA projects that renewables will provide nearly half of world electricity by 2050”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2019, (October 2, 2019), https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41533

[80] Hannah Ritchie and Pablo Rosado, “Electricity Mix”, Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix

[81] Ibid.

[82] “Coal in Net Zero Transition”, International Energy Agency, (iea), https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-in-net-zero-transitions/executive-summary

[83] Assuming that the average capacity of the new power plants is 0.5 gigawatts (176 gigawatts / 0.5 = 352). Adam Vaughan, “China is building more than half of the world’s new coal power plants”, NewScientist, (April 26, 2022), https://www.newscientist.com/article/2317274-china-is-building-more-than-half-of-the-worlds-new-coal-power-plants

[84] Martin Armstrong, “The price of solar power has fallen by over 80% since 2010. Here’s why”, World Economic Forum, (November 4, 202), https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/11/renewable-energy-cost-fallen

[85] “World energy investment 2024”, The International Energy Agency (iea), (March 11, 2024), https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2024/overview-and-key-findings

[86] “Massive expansion of renewable power opens door to achieving global tripling goal set at COP28”, International Energy Agency (iea), (January 11, 2024), https://www.iea.org/news/massive-expansion-of-renewable-power-opens-door-to-achieving-global-tripling-goal-set-at-cop28?utm_campaign=IEA+newsletters&utm_medium=Email&utm_source=SendGrid

[87] Ibid.

[88] “Massive global growth of renewables to 2030 is set to match entire power capacity of major economies today, moving world closer to tripling goal”, The International Energy Agency (iea), (October 9, 2024), https://www.iea.org/news/massive-global-growth-of-renewables-to-2030-is-set-to-match-entire-power-capacity-of-major-economies-today-moving-world-closer-to-tripling-goal

[89] Adam Zewe, “Paper-thin solar cell can turn any surface into a power source”, MIT News, (June 29, 2023), https://energy.mit.edu/news/paper-thin-solar-cell-can-turn-any-surface-into-a-power-source/

[90] Maayan Grossman, “Revolutionary Guards commander demands that Iran annex Bahrain”, The Jerusalem Post, (March 21, 2016), https://www.jpost.com/middle-east-iran-news/revolutionary-guards-commander-demands-that-iran-annex-bahrain-448643

[91] Nader Kabbani and Nejla Ben Mimoune, “Economic Diversification in the Gulf Time to redouble efforts”, Brookings, (January 31, 2021), https://www.brookings.edu/articles/economic-diversification-in-the-gulf-time-to-redouble-efforts/